Sargassum muticum

Not all introduced (invasive) species in a region will spread from a single point of introduction. Long-distance dispersal or further introductions can obscure the pattern of spread, but the regional importance of such processes is difficult to gauge. These difficulties are further compounded when information on the multiple scale process of invasive species range expansion is reduced to one-dimensional estimates of spread (e.g. km yr⁻¹). We therefore compared the results of two different metrics of range expansion: maximum linear rate of spread and accumulation of occupied grid squares (50 × 50 km) over time. An analysis of records for 54 species of introduced marine macrophytes in the Mediterranean and northeast Atlantic revealed cases where the invasion process was probably missed (e.g. Atlantic Bonnemaisonia hamifera) and suggested cases of secondary introductions or erratic jump dispersal (Dasysiphonia sp. and Womersleyella setacea). A majority of species analysed showed evidence for an accumulation of invaded sites without a clear invasion front. Estimates of spread rate are increasing for more recent introductions. The increase is greater than can be accounted for by temporally varying search effort and implies a historical increase in vector efficiency and/or a decreased resistance of native communities to invasion.

In press in the journal, Proceedings of the Royal Society Series B: Biological Sciences.

Full citation

Mineur F, Davies AJ, Maggs CA, Verlaque M, Johnson MP (In press) Fronts, jumps and secondary introductions suggested as different invasion patterns in marine species, with an increase in spread rates over time. Proceedings of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences. DOI: 10.1098/rspb.2010.0494

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The conference was headed: “Issues confronting the deep oceans: the economic, scientific and governance challenges and oppotuinites of working in the deep sea”. I was invited to present in a special session chaired by Jeff Ardron and Liz McLanahan entitled “Linking deep sea science to international decisions: Vulnerable and ecologically significant areas”.

My presentation was “Predicting the distribution of framework forming corals” and included updates on my new modelling processes and more importantly a new suite of environmental variables at a 30 arc second resolution (1 km). The presentation is available for viewing by clicking below. If you have any questions, or are interested in collaborating don’t hesitate to contact me.

Download the presentation here: Davies et al 2009 ICES presentation (277)

An important aim of large, pan-European scientific projects with numerous research groups is to integrate and visualize the acquired distributed data sets and results. The large volume of diverse data gathered and the need to disseminate results among the scientific community and beyond requires using a Geographic Information System (GIS). This article presents our experiences in creating a unified Web-based GIS for HERMES. The HERMES-GIS is based on Web Mapping Services that include direct links to the World Data Center for Marine Environmental Science and its large, long-term geoscience data archive and publication unit, PANGAEA (http://www.pangaea.de). It incorporates metadata and data from all project partners to provide users with basic analytical and visualization tools for archived (distributed) and personal (local) data, and it is also a policymaking tool. Additionally, we illustrate two important GIS applications inside the HERMES community— the use of data models to integrate several subdisciplines and the use of predictive habitat modeling.

Publication in Oceanography 22(1).

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De Mol B, Querol N, Davies AJ, Schäfer A, Foglini F, Gonzales-Mirelis G, Kopke K, Dunne D, Shewe I, Trincardi F, Canals M (2009) HERMES-GIS: a tool to connect scientists. Oceanography 22(1): 144-153.

http://www.tos.org/oceanography/

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Published in Deep-sea Research Vol. 1 (2008)

Ecological-niche factor analysis (ENFA) was applied to the reef framework-forming cold-water coral Lophelia pertusa. The environmental tolerances of this species were assessed using readily available oceanographic data, including physical, chemical, and biological variables. Lophelia pertusa was found at mean depths of 468 and 480 metres on the regional and global scales and occupied a niche that included higher than average current speed and productivity, supporting the theory that their limited food supply is locally enhanced by currents. Most records occurred in areas with a salinity of 35, mean temperatures of 6.2-6.7 °C and dissolved oxygen levels of 6.0-6.2 ml l-1. The majority of records were found in areas that were saturated with aragonite but had low concentration of nutrients (silicate, phosphate, and nitrate). Suitable habitat for L. pertusa was predicted using ENFA on a global and a regional scale that incorporated the north-east Atlantic Ocean. Regional prediction was reliable due to numerous presence points throughout the area, whereas global prediction was less reliable due to the paucity of presence data outside of the north-east Atlantic. However, the species niche was supported at each spatial scale. Predicted maps at the global scale reinforced the general consensus that the North Atlantic Ocean is a key region in the worldwide distribution of L. pertusa. Predictive modelling is an approach that can be applied to cold-water coral species to locate areas of suitable habitat for further study. It may also prove a useful tool to assist spatial planning of offshore marine protected areas. However, issues with eco-geographical datasets, including their coarse resolution and limited geographical coverage, currently restrict the scope of this approach.

Full citation

Davies, A.J., Wisshak, M., Orr, J.C. & Roberts, J.M. (2008) “Predicting suitable habitat for Lophelia pertusa” Deep-sea Research Volume 1, 55: 1048-1062.

http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.dsr.2008.04.010

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Published in Marine Ecology-Progress Series (2007)

The role of limpet grazing in preventing the development of algal canopies is a recurrent theme in intertidal ecology. Less is known about interactions of limpets with the long-term dynamics of established canopies. Aerial photographs indicate that intertidal canopy cover has declined over the past 44 yr in Strangford Lough, Northern Ireland. There has been a loss of the previously continuous cover of Ascophyllum nodosum (L.) Le Jolis in the mid-shore. A barnacle dominated assemblage now fills gaps in the A. nodosum canopy. The rates at which barnacle patches become established and grow have increased since 1990. Changes in canopy cover have been accompanied by increases in limpet densities since the 1980s. Measurements between 2003 and 2004 showed no increase in length of A. nodosum fronds when limpets Patella vulgata had access to the algal holdfasts. In contrast, when limpets were experimentally excluded from the holdfasts, there was net frond growth. In the Isle of Man, which is climatically similar to Strangford Lough but has fewer limpets, growth occurred regardless of limpet grazing. The breaking force for A. nodosum declined with increasing local densities of limpets. A. nodosum is a sheltered shore species, potentially vulnerable to changes in wave exposure. There is no evidence, however, that Strangford Lough has become windier over the past 3 decades. Variation in wave exposure among locations within the lough was not related to rates of barnacle patch creation or expansion. Limpet population density has increased following a series of mild winters. Climate change may have a role in causing canopy loss, not by direct effects on the growth of fucoids, but by increasing the severity of grazing through changes to limpet populations.

Full citation

Davies, A.J., Johnson, M.P. & Maggs, C.A. (2007) “Unexpected loss of Ascophyllum nodosum caused by limpet grazing” Marine Ecology-Progress Series 339: 131-141.

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Published in Estuarine, Coastal and Shelf Science (2006)

Both climate change and the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) may influence coastal systems by altering wave exposure. The effects of such climatic forcing are often coherent over relatively large geographic areas. Temporal trends in wave exposure at any particular shore are, however, the result of an interaction between site-specific fetch characteristics and changes in wind climate. This leads to contrasting trends in wave exposure at locations separated by no more than a few kilometres. Wave exposures were estimated at locations around a sea lough over 32 years to characterise these scales of variability. Locations separated by approximately 5 km had independent dynamics with respect to the temporal trend (correlation range -0.35 to 0.44) and to associations with the NAO (correlation range -0.18 to 0.40). Wave exposure can therefore be increasing for a section of shore while nearby areas have the opposite trend. Mean exposure at a location was not a good predictor of the temporal trend. More exposed sites were, however, sensitive to variations in the strength of the NAO. The reduction of large scale forcing to small-scale variability has implications for the detection and mitigation of potential climate change impacts.

Full citation

Davies, A.J. & Johnson, M.P. (2006) “Coastline configuration disrupts large-scale climatic forcing, leading to divergent temporal trends in wave exposure” Estuarine and Coastal Shelf Science 69 (3-4): 643-648.

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