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	<title>Andrew J Davies &#187; prediction</title>
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	<description>Marine ecology, modelling and computers</description>
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		<title>Habitat Suitability for Cold-Water Corals</title>
		<link>http://www.anddavies.co.uk/marine-ecology/habitat-suitability-for-cold-water-corals/</link>
		<comments>http://www.anddavies.co.uk/marine-ecology/habitat-suitability-for-cold-water-corals/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Sat, 16 Apr 2011 08:27:32 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Andy</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Computers]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[General ecology]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Marine ecology]]></category>
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		<category><![CDATA[modelling]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[prediction]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.anddavies.co.uk/?p=324</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[The framework-forming coral Lophelia pertusa Andrew J. Davies and John Guinotte Cold-water corals are found in all the oceans of the world. Usually below 200 metres, they create structurally complex habitat that gives rise to a unique deep-sea ecosystem in, what otherwise may be a relatively featureless area. Numerous other filter-feeding organisms are found, along [...]]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<div class="mceTemp" style="text-align: center;">
<dl id="attachment_325" class="wp-caption alignright" style="width: 165px;">
<dt class="wp-caption-dt"><img class="size-medium wp-image-325 " title="Lophelia pertusa from NOAA" src="http://www.anddavies.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2011/04/Lophelia_figure_1_600-221x300.jpg" alt="" width="155" height="210" /></dt>
<dd class="wp-caption-dd">The framework-forming coral <em>Lophelia pertusa</em></dd>
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<p><em>Andrew J. Davies and John Guinotte</em></p>
<p>Cold-water corals are found in all the oceans of the world. Usually below 200 metres, they create structurally complex habitat that gives rise to a unique deep-sea ecosystem in, what otherwise may be a relatively featureless area. Numerous other filter-feeding organisms are found, along with fish that may use the coral as a nursery ground. Yet, we don&#8217;t know where many occurrences of cold-water coral are&#8230;.</p>
<p>This is where habitat suitability modelling comes in. By using the best available scientific information and powerful statistical tools, we are able to predict, based on the species environmental requirements where they are likely to occur. Mine and John&#8217;s work, published in PLoS ONE is an important step towards turning habitat suitability modelling into a viable tool for the protection of vulnerable marine ecosystems in the deep sea. This paper represents several years of work, designing and constructing new approaches to allow us to model coral distributions at high resolution. The outputs speak for themselves, with a 1 km resolution, we may finally be able to say to other researchers, go here, you have a good chance of finding coral in this area. Or, we may be able to say, there is a high probability of coral occurrence here, perhaps we could designate this area closed to bottom contact fishing or other exploitation.</p>
<p>Read the abstract below, or download the PDF from either my site or the <a href="http://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0018483" target="_blank">PLoS ONE site</a>.</p>
<h3>Download article</h3>
<a class="downloadlink" href="http://www.anddavies.co.uk/wp-content/plugins/download-monitor/download.php?id=3" title=" downloaded 146 times" >Davies and Guinotte (2011) PLoS ONE (146)</a>
<h3></h3>
<h3>Full citation</h3>
<p><strong>Davies AJ</strong>, Guinotte JM (2011) Global Habitat Suitability for Framework-Forming Cold-Water Corals. PLoS ONE 6(4): e18483. doi:<a href="http://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0018483" target="_blank">10.1371/journal.pone.0018483</a></p>
<h3>Abstract</h3>
<p><span>Predictive habitat models are increasingly being used by conservationists, researchers and governmental bodies to identify vulnerable ecosystems and species&#8217; distributions in areas that have not been sampled. However, in the deep sea, several limitations have restricted the widespread utilisation of this approach. These range from issues with the accuracy of species presences, the lack of reliable absence data and the limited spatial resolution of environmental factors known or thought to control deep-sea species&#8217; distributions. To address these problems, global habitat suitability models have been generated for five species of framework-forming scleractinian corals by taking the best available data and using a novel approach to generate high resolution maps of seafloor conditions. High-resolution global bathymetry was used to resample gridded data from sources such as World Ocean Atlas to produce continuous 30-arc second (~1 km<sup>2</sup>) global grids for environmental, chemical and physical data of the world&#8217;s oceans. The increased area and resolution of the environmental variables resulted in a greater number of coral presence records being incorporated into habitat models and higher accuracy of model predictions. The most important factors in determining cold-water coral habitat suitability were depth, temperature, aragonite saturation state and salinity. Model outputs indicated the majority of suitable coral habitat is likely to occur on the continental shelves and slopes of the Atlantic, South Pacific and Indian Oceans. The North Pacific has very little suitable scleractinian coral habitat. Numerous small scale features (i.e., seamounts), which have not been sampled or identified as having a high probability of supporting cold-water coral habitat were identified in all ocean basins. Field validation of newly identified areas is needed to determine the accuracy of model results, assess the utility of modelling efforts to identify vulnerable marine ecosystems for inclusion in future marine protected areas and reduce coral bycatch by commercial fisheries.<br />
</span></p>
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		<title>Conference: ICES Deep-sea Symposium</title>
		<link>http://www.anddavies.co.uk/conferences/conference-ices-deep-sea-symposium/</link>
		<comments>http://www.anddavies.co.uk/conferences/conference-ices-deep-sea-symposium/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Thu, 21 May 2009 19:45:58 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Andy</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Conferences]]></category>
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		<category><![CDATA[deep-sea]]></category>
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		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.anddavies.co.uk/?p=114</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[I recently participated in the ICES Deep-sea Symposium on the island of Faial in the Azores. This 4 day meeting ran from 27-30 April and included delegates from all over the world, presenting on subjects from mining to ecology of many deep-sea habitats. The conference was headed: &#8220;Issues confronting the deep oceans: the economic, scientific [...]]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p><a href="http://www.anddavies.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2009/05/800px-azoren_141.jpg"><img class="alignright size-thumbnail wp-image-116" style="border: 1px solid black;" title="800px-azoren_141" src="http://www.anddavies.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2009/05/800px-azoren_141-150x150.jpg" alt="800px-azoren_141" width="150" height="150" /></a>I recently participated in the ICES Deep-sea Symposium on the island of Faial in the Azores. This 4 day meeting ran from 27-30 April and included delegates from all over the world, presenting on subjects from mining to ecology of many deep-sea habitats.</p>
<p>The conference was headed: &#8220;Issues confronting the deep oceans: the economic, scientific and governance challenges and oppotuinites of working in the deep sea&#8221;. I was invited to present in a special session chaired by Jeff Ardron and Liz McLanahan entitled &#8220;Linking deep sea science to international decisions: Vulnerable and ecologically significant areas&#8221;.</p>
<p>My presentation was &#8220;Predicting the distribution of framework forming corals&#8221; and included updates on my new modelling processes and more importantly a new suite of environmental variables at a 30 arc second resolution (1 km). The presentation is available for viewing by clicking below. If you have any questions, or are interested in collaborating don&#8217;t hesitate to <a href="http://www.anddavies.co.uk/contact-me/">contact me</a>.</p>
<p><img class="size-thumbnail wp-image-65 alignleft" title="pdf-logo" src="http://www.anddavies.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2008/10/pdf-logo-150x150.jpg" alt="pdf-logo" width="25" height="25" />Download the presentation here: <a class="downloadlink" href="http://www.anddavies.co.uk/wp-content/plugins/download-monitor/download.php?id=1" title="Version1 downloaded 458 times" >Davies et al 2009 ICES presentation (458)</a></p>
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		</item>
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		<title>Predicting suitable habitat for Lophelia pertusa</title>
		<link>http://www.anddavies.co.uk/marine-ecology/predicting-suitable-habitat-for-lophelia-pertusa/</link>
		<comments>http://www.anddavies.co.uk/marine-ecology/predicting-suitable-habitat-for-lophelia-pertusa/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Fri, 18 Jul 2008 20:41:14 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Andy</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Marine ecology]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Publications]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[ENFA]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[lophelia]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[modelling]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[prediction]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.anddavies.co.uk/?p=23</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Andrew J. Davies, Max Wisshak, James C. Orr and J. Murray Roberts Published in Deep-sea Research Vol. 1 (2008) Ecological-niche factor analysis (ENFA) was applied to the reef framework-forming cold-water coral Lophelia pertusa. The environmental tolerances of this species were assessed using readily available oceanographic data, including physical, chemical, and biological variables. Lophelia pertusa was [...]]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p><em>Andrew J. Davies, Max Wisshak, James C. Orr and J. Murray Roberts</em></p>
<p>Published in Deep-sea Research Vol. 1 (2008)</p>
<p><img class="alignleft alignnone size-full wp-image-25" style="float: left; margin: 5px;" src="http://www.anddavies.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2008/04/globe_west1.jpg" alt="" width="200" height="200" /></p>
<p>Ecological-niche factor analysis (ENFA) was applied to the reef framework-forming cold-water coral <em>Lophelia</em> <em>pertusa</em>. The environmental tolerances of this species were assessed using readily available oceanographic data, including physical, chemical, and biological variables.<em> Lophelia pertusa </em>was found at mean depths of 468 and 480 metres on the regional and global scales and occupied a niche that included higher than average current speed and productivity, supporting the theory that their limited food supply is locally enhanced by currents. Most records occurred in areas with a salinity of 35, mean temperatures of 6.2-6.7 °C and dissolved oxygen levels of 6.0-6.2 ml l-1. The majority of records were found in areas that were saturated with aragonite but had low concentration of nutrients (silicate, phosphate, and nitrate). Suitable habitat for <em>L. pertusa</em> was predicted using ENFA on a global and a regional scale that incorporated the north-east Atlantic Ocean. Regional prediction was reliable due to numerous presence points throughout the area, whereas global prediction was less reliable due to the paucity of presence data outside of the north-east Atlantic. However, the species niche was supported at each spatial scale. Predicted maps at the global scale reinforced the general consensus that the North Atlantic Ocean is a key region in the worldwide distribution of <em>L. pertusa</em>. Predictive modelling is an approach that can be applied to cold-water coral species to locate areas of suitable habitat for further study. It may also prove a useful tool to assist spatial planning of offshore marine protected areas. However, issues with eco-geographical datasets, including their coarse resolution and limited geographical coverage, currently restrict the scope of this approach.</p>
<h3>Full citation</h3>
<p><strong><span class="highlightedSearchTerm">Davies</span>, A.J.</strong>, Wisshak, M., Orr, J.C. &amp; Roberts, J.M. (2008) “Predicting suitable habitat for <em>Lophelia pertusa</em>” Deep-sea Research Volume 1, 55: 1048-1062. <a href="http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.dsr.2008.04.010">j.dsr.2008.04.010</a></p>
<h3>Request PDF</h3>
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